2026 Economic and Workforce Trends BINGO

My outlook on what 2026 has in store for us and the jobs economy.

Happy New Year!

As the year gets rolling, I think it’s obvious that the current economy, job market, and workforce are changing rapidly. Everywhere you turn, there’s news about mass layoffs, AI adoption, inflation, a shrinking middle-class, and anything else that will grab your attention and manifest fear. While most headlines are exaggerations, underneath the surface I’m starting to notice some trends that I want to highlight.

I have some predictions for what I think we may experience this year in the world of work — some good, some bad, some ugly.

To formalize these predictions, I have made a BINGO card for 2026’s workforce and job trends. I will track these throughout the year to see which predictions come true, for better or for worse, and update them in my Monthly Workforce Roundups.

I want to make this clear — I don’t want negative things to happen. Some people love to focus on the negative, thriving on chaos, wanting everything to lead to dooms day.

I do believe things will get worse before they get better. How much worse? It’s hard to tell and even harder to predict, as forecasts simply measure past trends and paste them on the future. With the pace things are changing at, I don’t think what we are going to experience will be forecastable from past trends — this feels like unchartered territory and therefore requires a bit more assumption mixed with critical thinking.

Let’s get into it.

What’s on my BINGO card:

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to 3.25-3.50% — This one is obvious. Inflation hasn’t cooled, but people are worried about jobs. A new Federal Reserve Chair will be appointed, likely someone who Trump will have more control over, and they will feel pressure to cut rates again.

Amazon performs another mass layoff (5,000+ workers) — Now that the holiday season is over, and with further adoption of AI, I see Amazon laying off more workers.

Small businesses lose 200k jobs in first quarter (Jan-March) — Small businesses have already been losing jobs at a rapid rate in the second half of 2025. Small businesses can often be a signal to the overall health of the economy. Small businesses are hurting and will continue to crack under the pressure of increasing costs.

Unemployment reaches 5% in first half of year — As of December 2025, unemployment has reached 4.7%, trending upward. This could easily climb to 5% by July.

BLS updates 2025 job numbers to be 1 million less than reported — We saw this happen for 2024, and the BLS has already started correcting reports for how many jobs were added in 2025. As data gets refined, I’m fairly certain the BLS will catch up with what we’ve all been experiencing.

Healthcare adds 100k new jobs — Healthcare continues to lead job growth, and with Baby Boomers leaving the workforce and entering retirement, demand for healthcare workers will continue to grow.

Natural Resources adds 20k new jobs — *I wrote this down before we kidnapped the Venezuelan president, but I think we will experience growth in the oil/gas industry.

CEO scandal at major company — Every year there is always some sort of dramatic scandal involving CEOs (2024 - United Health CEO gets murdered, 2025 - Coldplay concert), so I don’t see why we won’t read some major headline about a new scandal among the elite.

Wage growth slows to 2% — I’m hesitant about this one, as many companies are performing layoffs and increasing the wages of remaining employees, but I think desperation for work, job-hugging, and corporate greed will slow wage growth.

Federal workforce development support package for community colleges/ vocational programs — This is one I’m hoping for. We’ve seen the current administration waging war against the university system, so I foresee further efforts going toward propping up vocational training and community college programs.

Hospitality/Leisure adds less than 100k (net) new jobs — We saw the industry shrinking its workforce in 2025 due to decreased consumer spending and AI integration, so I think this trend will continue even more dramatically in 2026 as American wallets get squeezed.

Feds make big push to support small businesses — Once the struggle of small businesses is acknowledged by the administration, they will try to reverse the damage.

Construction trade adds 50k (net) new jobs — Construction did experience slowing in 2025, but with the push to increase infrastructure and housing, construction will begin to add jobs again.

Large concern over middle-management roles disappearing — We’ve already seen growing concern over management roles disappearing, but this is just the beginning.

Major tech company receives government bailout — Investments keep pouring into large tech companies developing AI, outpacing demand for the technology itself. They don’t mind though, because they know they’ll get bailed out.

Energy costs (measured by CPI) grow by (at least) 5% — Energy companies are subsidizing many data centers to attract businesses, passing on costs to consumers.

Economy crashes — Bold, but I couldn’t not include it…

Manufacturing jobs start trending upwards again after bottoming — The full effects of tariffs are yet to be felt, but I think once things plateau, we’ll experience an uptick in job creation again in manufacturing.

Renewable Energy adds 50k (net) new jobs — Renewable energy has been one of the few industries with stable job growth.

Economy adds 100k jobs in January — In January, we always see an uptick in job postings, as many companies hold off on hiring until the new year begins.

2026 college grads experience higher unemployment than seen in past — I’ve written previously about the loss of entry-level jobs and the over-saturation of college degrees in the workforce. University enrollment has not slowed, but entry-level job creation has, so I foresee this being an even larger issue for the graduating class of 2026.

Unemployment reaches 10 million — As the unemployment rate continues to rise, we will easily breach 10 million people on unemployment benefits.

Major news article about “disappearing middle class” — I’ve read many articles about how the middle class is disappearing, getting richer, growing, and everything in between. There are many different factors to consider when measuring the middle class, but headlines still love to bring the dramatics.

Large department store shuts down — With so many companies being bought by private equity and then bankrupted, along with consumers continuing to monitor their spending habits, it won’t be long until we see another staple department store go under.

What are your predictions for 2026?

Conclusion

Of course, these are just my assumptions. This year will be interesting I’m sure, but I’m always hoping for the best and will continue to write about what’s going on in the world of work honestly and critically.

I hope the beginning of 2026 has been treating you kindly and that you find even more success this year.

Cheers,

Grace